ACUS03 KWNS 190703
SWODY3
SPC AC 190702

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE BASE OF EAST COAST U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH BY 22/12Z. WHILE RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK ASCENT ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE IT DOES NOT APPEAR MEANINGFUL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY AS IT MIGRATES SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. WHILE THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH MODESTLY BUOYANT. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SFC WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES ACROSS IL/IND INTO WRN OH WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE NRN GULF STATES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AS SHEAR PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF LITTLE MORE THAN PULSE/MULTI-CELL TYPE UPDRAFTS.

OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NERN NM. THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A BIT STRONGER SHEAR BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL MOST STORMS ACROSS THE U.S...WHILE ROBUST AT TIMES...SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.

..DARROW.. 05/19/2012