ACUS01 KWNS 051941
SWODY1
SPC AC 051939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SHUNTED FL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE SWD A BIT AS VISIBLE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CU FIELD HAVING TROUBLE GROWING PAST WEAK CAP AND DEWPOINTS
MIXING INTO THE UPPER 50S F. BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF FL WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES.

ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TX THUNDER LINE A BIT. THIS AREA TOO WILL ONLY
SEE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..JEWELL.. 02/05/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012/

...SERN STATES...
REMOVED GENERAL TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND GA.  REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.

DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WAS IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GA AS LOW/MID-LVL FLOW HAS TURNED WLY AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC CDFNT.  THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND ONLY WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/UPR SUPPORT WILL LIMIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.

FARTHER S...COMPARATIVELY RICH LLVL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT OVER MUCH
OF FL.  SEABREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LLVL BUOYANCY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER NRN/CNTRL FL THIS AFTN.  NO SVR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO MEAGER INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...UPR DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN/SCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.  DOWNSTREAM...CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING OVER WRN CUBA AND THE KEYS INVOF SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ENVELOPE SRN FL TO
LIMIT HEATING...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTM PROBABILITIES.  WEAK WIND FIELDS/BUOYANCY WILL
LIMIT SVR RISKS.

...CNTRL/SRN TX...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GENERAL TSTM RISK.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE EVENT LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TIED TO A
H25 SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK.  MAJORITY OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS
NOW OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS.  NEW TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER
THE BIG BEND REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL-END OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO/SRN NM.

SPORADIC TSTMS WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN TX THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO THE BIG BEND REGION EWD ACROSS THE
SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO SCNTRL TX/COASTAL BEND.  ACTIVITY WILL
BE ELEVATED ATOP THE COLD DOME THAT SETTLED INTO PLACE YESTERDAY
WITH FCST MUCAPE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE SVR HAIL.