ACUS03 KWNS 140731
SWODY3
SPC AC 140729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES/NRN PLAINS AT 12Z/SAT...SUBSEQUENT
EWD EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS QUITE VARIED IN BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
LOCATION AS IT IMPINGES ON THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
SRN PLAINS TO SERN CANADA. THIS RENDERS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT
SHOULD TRAIL SWWD...MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST WITH HOW THE THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES ON SAT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ONGOING MCS CLUSTERS AT
12Z. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS ENHANCED BY ANY REMNANT MCV/S TOWARDS THE
MID-MO VALLEY. WITH A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION
REGIME...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUSTAINED INTO THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT GREATER SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP.

FARTHER SW...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGER BUOYANCY SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AND S OF ANY REMNANT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM D2 ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD
IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. BUT WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE...HIGHER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND LIMIT SUSTENANCE
OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 06/14/2012

WWWW